Knowledge is power. Fictional gangster Tony Montana taught us that in this country first you need the power, and then you get the money. With this in mind, here are five must-read facts that you should know before betting on NFL football in Week 11. Having this knowledge gives you the power to be able to get the money.
1. Miami's five-game winning streak is no fluke
The Dolphins are a team on the rise after knocking off the 49ers, Jets, Rams, Cardinals and Chargers in the last five games. They have climbed to 10th in overall DVOA (defense adjusted value over over average) after winning those games by an average score of 31-16. They face a struggling Broncos team that has dropped to 31st in DVOA . The Broncos' defense has allowed an average of 36 points per game over the last four, with each opponent reaching 30 or more.
2. Cincinnati is better than its record
The Bengals record is 2-6-1, but they are a profitable 6-3 against the spread. The old gambling adage is that good teams win, but great teams cover. It is a little premature to call the Bengals a great team, but they do face an anemic Washington Football Team averaging just 18 points per game. The Bengals are 1.5-point underdogs but are live to win this game outright.
3. The Texans have been the most disappointing team in the league
This is a bold statement, but one that is backed up by the stats. The Texans record is 2-7, with both wins coming against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. That’s not good, but the real reason they are disappointing is their record against the spread. Gamblers have given this team too much respect. They have only covered in two of nine games. After being a favorite on the early lines, the Texans have moved to 2.5-points underdog against the Patriots.
4. The Chargers could be gold this weekend
The Chargers welcome the New York Jets this weekend. The Jets are at the bottom of virtual every team rankings. The spread on this game is high at -8.5. The Chargers have played nine games and all but one has finished with a point differential of 8 points or less. The most profitable 6-point teaser legs are when you can tease a home team through the key numbers of three and seven. The Chargers as a home favorite at -8.5 can be teased down to -2.5, thus changing final point differentials of a field goal or touchdown into wins at the lower total. Sportsbooks will be rooting for the Jets this week, as they are likely to have more exposure to the Chargers than any other game Sunday because of this.
5. The Cowboys have the worst offense in the league since the Dak Prescott injury
Over the first five games, the Cowboys' offense averaged 32 points per game and looked unstoppable with Dak Prescott under center. Prescott was injured in Week 5 against the Giants and is out for the season. In the last four games without Prescott, the Cowboys have failed to reach 20 points once. They are averaging a league-low 10.25 over that stretch. The Vikings defense ranks 10th in DVOA. They will be the fourth top-10 defense the Cowboys have faced in the last five games. It is tough to envision this offense doing better on the road at Minnesota than they did against teams like Washington, Pittsburgh and Arizona over the last couple weeks.