There are 10 games on the MLB schedule for Monday, so there’s plenty of action on the board. Below you’ll find a few of my favorite picks and shot props. If you’re looking for more bets this season, check out the FTN Bet Tracker at FTNBets.com. Make sure you check out FTN’s free Parlay Calculator to get the best possible odds.
L.A. Dodgers -161 (BetAmerica) at Chicago Cubs +157 (William Hill) — O/U 8
The Dodgers and Cubs begin a three-game series at Wrigley Field. Walker Buehler (1-0, 3.16 ERA) gets the ball for the Dodgers and the Cubs will counter with Kyle Hendricks (1-3, 7.54 ERA).
The Dodgers entered Sunday’s game against the Brewers on a bit of a slide offensively as they had the third-lowest wOBA (.279) over the past two weeks. They woke up in a big way as they put up 16 runs in Milwaukee, thanks to 15 combined RBIs from AJ Pollock (eight) and Matt Beaty (seven). Los Angeles racked up 18 hits and get a pitcher in Hendricks who has allowed a lot of contact this season.
Hendricks has a career-high 82.6 contact percentage, and his fastball is at a career-low 86.4 mph (87.4 last season). He’s also rocking a career-high 36.8% fly-ball rate and 41.6% hard-hit rate. He’s coughed up 32 hits, 19 runs, 10 homers and eight walks in 22.2 innings. Hendricks has never been a big strikeout pitcher (7.60 K/9 for his career) and he’s struggling this season with the walks (3.18 BB/9).
The same can’t be said for Buehler, who has allowed two or fewer runs in four of his five starts. He checks in with a 31:2 K:BB ratio over 31.1 innings and he’s in a good spot to rack up a few more strikeouts as the Cubs’ 27.2 K% is third-highest in the game. Chicago always ranks inside the top 10 in SwStr% and CSW%. Consider the over on Buehler’s strikeout prop if you can find it at 6.5.
Los Angeles has a league-high +45 run differential thanks to the outburst Sunday. Meanwhile the Cubs are at -14 and sit in last place in the NL Central. You have to pay a little juice to get the Dodgers on the money line which I’m fine with, but consider the over on their 4.5 team implied total, which you can find at our FTN Props Shop.
Prediction: 6-3, Los Angeles Best bet: Dodgers Money line & O 4.5 Team Total Prop: Dodgers O 4.5 Team Total
Tampa Bay Rays +100 (BetAmerica) at L.A. Angels -105 (William Hill) — O/U 7.5
The Rays and Angels open up a four-game series in Anaheim. Both teams are starting with their aces. Tyler Glasnow (3-1, 1.67 ERA) gets the ball for Tampa Bay while the Angels send two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani (1-0, 3.29 ERA) to the mound.
Glasnow has been just about perfect this season apart from his one start against the Toronto Blue Jays where he allowed five runs over six innings. He still struck out 10 in that game as he has a very strong 39.2 K% for the season (56 K in 37.2 IP). Glasnow allowed two total runs in his other five starts (31.2 innings).
Ohtani will be making his fourth start, and although he’s struggled with command (13 walks in 13.2 innings), he’s done a lot of good things. Ohtani allowed one run over his first two outings (8.2 innings), but he issued 11 walks. In his last start against the Rangers, Ohtani surrendered four runs and two walks in the first inning, but he settled down and pitched four scoreless innings after that. He ended up with nine strikeouts and he didn’t walk any more batters en route to his first win since 2018.
I expect both offenses to be slowed down by these pitchers. The Rays don’t take a lot of walks and they have the second-highest swinging strike percentage in baseball, so Ohtani should be able to get a few swings and misses. Glasnow has allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of his past 13 starts dating to 2020. He has a 1.06 ERA in 17 innings on the road this season and he had a 3.45 mark in 31.1 innings away from TB in 2020.
Prediction: 3-2, Los Angeles Best bet: Under 7.5 Prop: Shohei Ohtani O 7.5 K (I would go as high as 8.5 K)
Others to consider: Minnesota; Toronto; Cleveland