Minnesota Vikings (1-3) at Seattle Seahawks (4-0)
Moneyline: Vikings +270 (BetMGM), Seahawks -320 (PointsBet)
Spread: Vikings +7, -105 (PointsBet ), Seahawks -7, +105 (PointsBet)
Total: 56.5, -109 (DraftKings)
The Seattle Seahawks welcome the Minnesota Vikings to CenturyLink Field on Sunday night and can make history with a win. Seattle has never started a season 5-0, and Vegas likes its chances of doing so, listing it as touchdown favorites. Plenty of points are expected to boot. The Vikings picked up their first win of the season last week, but history isn’t on their side as they’ve lost eight of 10 regular-season games in Seattle.
Russell Wilson leads the NFL with a 136.7 passer rating thanks to a league-high 16 touchdowns, 9.4 yards per pass attempt and 75.2% completion percentage. He’s in a spot to pad those stats as the Vikings have allowed the fourth-most yards (426.5) and passing yards per game (291.8). They’re surrendering 8.6 yards per pass attempt, the second-highest mark in the league.
Only the Miami Dolphins are allowing more yards per reception than Minnesota’s 12.8, and it may overtake Miami after this week. DK Metcalf’s 403 receiving yards were tied for the league-high heading into Week 5, and he has three touchdowns in four games. Tyler Lockett has four touchdowns and is averaging 75 yards per game.
It’s hard to imagine Kirk Cousins going toe-to-toe with Wilson, but Seattle has coughed up a league-high 401 passing yards per game, which is exactly why the 56.5 total is in play. According to FTN’s WR/CB Matchup Tool, Adam Thielen’s matchup against Shaquill Griffin is the week’s best on paper, followed by Lockett against Jeff Gladney. Metcalf also has a top-10 matchup against Holton Hill. Throw in Vikings’ rookie wideout Justin Jefferson, who has league-best 3.7 yards per route run, and you have yourself an old fashioned Sunday night shootout.
Not only do the Seahawks have the advantage at quarterback, they have the edge at rush defense. They’ve only given up 75.8 rushing yards per game and 3.4 YPC (third-fewest), while the Vikings are allowing 134.8 rushing yards per contest (ninth-most). The Seahawks’ run defense will be tested, though, as Dalvin Cook has a league-best 424 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Chris Carson is just behind him with five total touchdowns, and as you’ll see below, he has some enticing props.
Prediction: Seahawks 34-24
Chris Carson OVER 2.5 Receptions, -167 (DraftKings) and OVER 20.5 Receiving Yards, -111 (DraftKings)
Carson is averaging four targets, 3.75 catches and 28.25 receiving yards per game.
He has at least three grabs in every game and at least 20 yards through the air in three of Seattle’s four matchups. He also has three receiving touchdowns, and he’ll likely get a bulk of the third-down work with Carlos Hyde banged up.
DK Metcalf OVER 4.5 Receptions, -161 (BetMGM) and OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards. -145 (BetMGM)
Metcalf has exactly four catches and at least 92 yards in each of his four games. He’s hit the century mark in back-to-back games and in three of his past six, dating back to last season. His 25.2 yards per catch is the best mark in football and his 16.64-yard average depth of target ranks fifth among wideouts with 15 targets.
Adam Thielen OVER 5.5 Receptions, +125 (DraftKings)
The Seahawks have allowed a league-high 94 catches to wideouts, 27 more than the next-closest team.
Eleven wide receivers have caught at least five passes against them and slot wideouts have absolutely had their way against their secondary. Russell Gage, Julian Edelman and CeeDee Lamb combined for 22 catches out of the slot.
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